Rubber Market

2025-10-24

PART 1: Macroeconomic Factors

1. International:

EUDR Latest Developments: Large enterprises are complying as scheduled, while micro and small enterprises may receive a one-year extension.
In late October, former President Trump stated that the US and China would reach a trade agreement at the APEC summit.
US President Trump signed an executive order imposing a new 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy-duty trucks and parts, and a 10% tariff on imported passenger vans, effective November 1st.

2. Domestic:

China's GDP grew 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters.
China's Q3 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.8%, compared to 5.2% previously. The main theme of stable economic operation remains unchanged.
China's value-added industrial output for September increased 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 5.00% and the previous value of 5.20%.
The economic performance in the first three quarters was stable with progress, and high-quality development achieved positive results.

PART 2: Fundamental Analysis

1. Supply Side:

Recent heavy rainfall in Southern Thailand and the landing of Typhoon No. 24 in central Vietnam on October 23rd have affected tapping schedules in rubber-producing areas, thereby supporting raw material prices.

2. Demand Side:

The operating rate for Chinese semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07% this week, up 28.92 percentage points week-on-week but down 8.57 percentage points year-on-year.
The operating rate for Chinese all-steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, up 22.43 percentage points week-on-week and up 4.98 percentage points year-on-year.

3. Inventory Side:

As of October 19, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory stood at 1.05 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (2.8%) week-on-week.
Total social inventory of dark rubber was 640,000 tons, down 2.9%.

Qingdao spot inventory fell 4%. The total natural rubber inventory in the Qingdao area continued to decline to 437,500 tons.
Yunnan inventory increased 0.7%.
Vietnam 10# inventory increased 1%.
Total NR inventory decreased 3.7%.

Total social inventory of light-colored rubber was 410,000 tons, down 3% week-on-week.

PART 3: Technical Analysis

Viewed from the daily chart, the natural rubber 01 contract price has risen recently, showing short-term volatility with a stronger bias.
The MACD indicator shows the green histogram shrinking, and the DIF line crossing above the DEA line, indicating a short-term price rebound. However, the golden cross is weak as both lines are below the zero axis.
In terms of trading volume, long volume energy has increased, while short position volume energy has weakened.
In the short term, watch for the K-line fluctuating upwards, with the 30-day moving average around 15,500 seen as a short-term resistance level.

PART 4: Summary and Outlook

This week, the rubber market experienced relatively sharp price fluctuations influenced by Sino-US economic and trade relations.
Currently, overseas raw material prices remain firm, and spot inventories continue their destocking trend, providing some support from the supply side.
However, downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, lacking strong upward momentum.
Terminal vehicle market production and sales show positive growth, tire company operating rates are recovering, and consumption growth benefits rubber price increases.
Looking ahead to next week, focus will be on natural rubber harvesting conditions and weather impacts, as well as downstream tire factory order demand and inventory situations.
Natural rubber prices are expected to fluctuate with a stronger bias in the short term.